This report focuses on the development of models concerned with the transition from use or no use to risky substance use and gambling. It also and includes the transition probabilities between no use-risky-harmful-cessation stages for alcohol.

Following D6.1, which documented the social costs attributable to the use of alcohol, tobacco and illegal drugs in three EU countries with different policies with respect to illegal drugs (Poland, Portugal and Catalonia (Spain)), this report estimates which part of these costs are avoidable with decreased levels of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug consumption, resulting in lower mortality rates and therefore benefits in productivity. It also analyzes the relationships between policies and costs in these countries, especially for costs occurring in the criminal sector, and estimates the avoidable costs associated with a potential introduction of a key policy, alcohol minimum unit price, in Poland.

The reduction of harmful substance use and gambling does not refer only to cessation, but also changes in patterns of use and the environment of use that result in a reduction in harmful outcomes to the individual, friends and family, and wider society. Within this work we have examined the determinants of such changes with a focus towards non-formal treatment.

This report also presents methodologically updated transition probabilities and hazard ratios for the transitions between different stages of alcohol use, calculted with reference to the different covariates age, gender and socioeconomic status.

Third of the three interim project evaluation reports presenting the findings of the following evaluation mechanisms, in the frame of the Bergen Model of Collaborative Functioning:

• The study of the transdisciplinary research orientations of ALICE RAP scientists undertaken between two and five years after the start of the project
• An online survey of all partners conducted at a mid-point of the project, assessing the degree of collaboration each respondent had with all the ALICE RAP Work Packages.
• The study of ALICE RAP partners' experience in the project, their perceptions of synergy in the project, and their attitudes towards future collaboration following the close of the formal phase of the project.