This report focuses on the development of models concerned with
the transition from risky use to harmful use of substances and gambling. It also and includes the transition probabilities between no use-risky-harmful-cessation stages for tobacco.

This report focuses on the development of models concerned with the transition from use or no use to risky substance use and gambling. It also and includes the transition probabilities between no use-risky-harmful-cessation stages for alcohol.

Following D6.1, which documented the social costs attributable to the use of alcohol, tobacco and illegal drugs in three EU countries with different policies with respect to illegal drugs (Poland, Portugal and Catalonia (Spain)), this report estimates which part of these costs are avoidable with decreased levels of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug consumption, resulting in lower mortality rates and therefore benefits in productivity. It also analyzes the relationships between policies and costs in these countries, especially for costs occurring in the criminal sector, and estimates the avoidable costs associated with a potential introduction of a key policy, alcohol minimum unit price, in Poland.